The Dollar in an Ugly MACD Crossover, Stocks Falling, Bonds Starting to Turn Down, Miners Rising.

In my post from last week, I stated:

“I’m either going to get a better chance to go long or else (even better) there’s going to be a reversal to the short-side.”

Sure enough, it looks like a reversal now.

RSI is now below 50, indicating a strong downtrend. And that MACD crossover is ugly. In addition, the dollar has now fallen far below its 21-day EMA and the 10-day EMA looks like its going to crossover any day now.

In my FXChoice gold-denominated Forex account, I’ve now entered a long trade on gold at 1181.39, with a stop at 1163.04 and a take profit at 1235.84. I think we are likely to see the dollar-price of gold rise to at least it’s 100-day EMA before (possibly) returning down again.

Stocks are also looking ugly right now, although not as ugly as the dollar.

RSI is still above 50. So this may just be a pullback. But I wouldn’t bet on it until I see confirmation. This also may range for a bit as the EMAs don’t look nearly as close together as they are on the dollar chart.

Bonds are starting to fall now. But it’s still way too early to get in.

While bonds are still overpriced, it’s hard to tell what to think about gold mining stocks. They are in a huge uptrend but not overbought yet. Still, they are far above their own 10-day EMA. So it may be too late to get in safely.

Still, I think mining stocks are a good buy right now. But in another week I expect them to be too pricey to risk buying.

I’ve now moved all of the cash that I had been accumulating during this dollar uptrend into my GoldMoney account. I think the possible rewards from holding dollars at this point are outweighed by the risks.

 


I use GoldMoney to buy my gold at half a percent over spot.