I just wanted to give a quick update on what happened in the second quarter with the supply and demand for gold.
Here is the data and my analysis.
All data are expressed in tonnes.
Mining output + net producer hedging: 748.5
Retail bar & coin demand: 290.9
ETF inflows/outflows: 111.9
Central bank purchases/sales: 82.2
Bullion bank/exchange hoarding: -18.7
Total Monetary Gold Demand: 466.3
Monetary Gold Demand Deficit: -282.2
Mining output + net producer hedging: 786.2 (37.7 more than Q1)
Retail bar & coin demand: 240.8 (50.1 less than Q1)
ETF inflows/outflows: 56 (55.9 less than Q1)
Central bank purchases/sales: 94.5 (12.3 more than Q1)
Bullion bank/exchange hoarding: 112.5 (131.2 more than Q1)
Total Monetary Gold Demand: 503.8 (37.5 more than Q1)
Monetary Gold Demand Deficit: -282.4 (0.2 more of a deficit than Q1)
Analysis: In Q2 2017, retail bar & coin collectors bought 50.1 less tonnes than the previous quarter and ETFs bought 55.9 less tonnes than the previous quarter. This is a total of 106 tonnes slowdown in demand growth.
Central banks bought 12.3 tonnes more than they did in the first quarter and bullion banks/exchanges bought a whopping 131.2 more tonnes than they did in Q1 (it seems to be a trend for bullion banks to increase inventory in the Spring each year). This is a total increase in demand growth of 143.5 tonnes.
After accounting for slower bar & coin and ETF demand, this means that demand for monetary gold still increased by 37.5 tonnes.
Mining output +net producer hedging also increased by 37.7 tonnes.
As a result, the monetary gold demand deficit increased by 0.2 tonnes and the price fell by $5.
Basically, supply and demand and price were both flat over the course of the quarter.
Since then, the price of gold has risen tremendously (the dollar has fallen in gold terms). So it will be interesting to see the data for Q3 when it comes out.