Dollar priced in gold continues to fall after NFP miss

The dollar priced in gold has continued to fall after non-farm payrolls showed that the U.S. economy only created 148,000 jobs in December vs. 190,000 expected. The jobs numbers for October and November were also revised downward by 9,000. Despite this miss on Friday, most of the losses for the dollar came earlier in the week and had already been priced in by the time the data came out, leading to a small retracement upward on the final trading day of the week, although it’s too small to be shown on the following chart.

U.S. dollar priced in gold 1-7-18

Currencies priced in gold.

All other fiat currencies have also fallen in value. The euro has now broken its uptrend, and the pound is at support.


The yen has also broken support and looks like it’s headed to the lows of 2015.


Like the pound, the Swiss frank is also at support. But unlike the pound, there isn’t much further the frank can fall before it runs into strong support, while there’s also a lot of room to move to the upside if it rebounds here.

swiss frank-gold 1-7-18

Overall, it’s been a pretty bad week for fiat currencies.

Precious metals priced in gold.

In contrast to fiat, silver is in a strong uptrend, with RSI above 50 and MACD turning positive.


Platinum’s long-term trend is down. But it appears to be carving out a bottom and trying to consolidate now.

platinum priced in gold 1-7-18

Palladium continues to be in a very nice uptrend, with no sign of slowing down.

palladium priced in gold 1-7-18

U.S. stocks and bonds priced in gold.

U.S. stocks have bounced upward after hitting the 50 SMA, exactly as I predicted. I expect them to continue to rise until they reach 2.25 oz. per share.

us stocks priced in gold 1-7-18

U.S. Treasury bonds, as represented by the TLT fund, are now at the bottom of the range they have been trading in. I expect they will soon boringly go back to the top of the range just like they have done over and over again for the past year.

us treasury bonds priced in gold 1-7-18


I’ve been waiting for bitcoin to fall to its 50 SMA when measured in gold. However, it doesn’t look like it’s going to get there. So I’ve started looking at it from a dollar-perspective again. From the perspective of USD price, bitcoin has hit its 50-day SMA and made a short bounce. It may fall back to that line several times before it moves up again. But the fact that the price held at support is a very good sign. The next sign to look for is a break above $17,280 and then above $19,200. Each of these steps would lead to an acceleration in momentum. Alternatively, a fall back to the 50 SMA once again at around $13,749 would be a chance to buy the dip. If for some strange reason the price were to fall below $13,500, I would seriously consider going short.

btc-usd 1-7-18

Full disclosure and risk statement: I own gold, euros, and BTC. Nothing said here should be construed as offering investment advice. Trading is risky and can lead to total loss of principal.

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